Event
Date
by Brett Odgers
Presented at Our Population'Our Future MCH conference in 2003.
'The Problem of Population is going to be not merely
an economist's problem, but in the near future
the greatest of all political questions.'
John Maynard Keynes, 1922
'The purpose is twofold: firstly, investigate the causes that have
hitherto impeded the progress of mankind towards happiness; and,
secondly examine the probability of the total or partial removal
of these causes in the future.'
Thomas, Preface to the Second Essay on The Principle of Population (1803)
In choosing a title for the conference, the word “population” was adopted in the sense of a great and pressing question, as Malthus and Keynes proposed.' “People” would have been an alternative, but the word lacks the connotations of issues and policies.
Similarly, the word “future” was chosen to connect population questions with the issues and challenges of sustainability, or sustainable development (in earlier Australian terminology, ecologically sustainable development).' Sustainability calls for intergenerational equity and “development that improves the total quality of life, now and in the future, in a way that maintains ecological processes on which life depends” (Australia’s National Strategy, 1992).
Population policy is regarded conventionally as a mix of very many complex variables.' It is seen as being divisible into numerous components, where governments get by without consistency and overarching, agreed national goals.' At least, governments are not inclined to promote comprehensive debate that explores such goals and assesses the general significance of specific policies.' Public debate tends to be handicapped by diffusion of issues and lack of continuity.
The agenda for this conference attempts, in the two morning sessions, to integrate key parameters of population and sustainability with consideration of values regarding the kind of Australia we want for ourselves and our posterity.
The two after-lunch sessions focus on three areas where, arguably, changes can and need to be made if Australia is to resolve population dilemmas and move more resolutely towards sustainability.' The themes are highly selective but they integrate readily and are justified, we believe, by the serious setbacks of recent times, on the one hand, and various signs of community strength and resilience, on the other.
The program allows plenty of time for questions and discussion.' Whilst the speakers are first rate in their respective fields, they have responded to the conference with a uniform facility for providing up-to-date information, connecting with other disciplines and presenting a spectrum of longer term thinking and policy choices.
The demographic picture has always been well served in Australia.'At the Australian National University from 1948, WD Borrie raised the disciple to a high level.' His National Population Inquiry report – Population and Australia: First report (1974) – provided the Commonwealth Government with a wealth of demographic material on the structure, ethnic origins and distribution of Australia's population, with international comparisons.' Today's pressing issues echo his concerns ' ageing and regionalisation ' plus new dimensions of fertility, work and family and paid maternity leave.
The global dimensions of sustainability are manifestly important for the population question.' The distortions of debate over asylum seekers illustrates very well the lack of a global, population policy, foreign policy, immigration, values and even fiscal context.'' Debate over the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, oppressed by supposed economic argument, can only be enhanced by greater awareness of the impacts upon public health and upon the equity gap between rich and poor countries.
History is especially pertinent to the population and sustainability debates.How did Australia arrive at a point where bipartisanship on immigration policy fractured, where refugees were treated inhumanely and international obligations denied, and confidence in multiculturalism gave way to fears of social instability?' If some of our institutions are looking shaky, what is required to restore our strength and confidence?
Three of our speakers in particular have undertaken personal journeys touching on Australia's nation-building experience.' Craig Emerson MP convened conferences in the 1990s about formulating visions for Australia's economic, environmental and social futures.' As a former top administrator and now senior member of a major political party, he is involved in overall policymaking.' Joanne Yin is a young Chinese-Australian with a strong public and internationally-oriented commitment to Australia.' Rad Leovic speaks about his experience as a political refugee and citizen of Australia.
Technology comes to our aid by way of the two presentations from CSIRO scientists.' Complex issues such as population and sustainability demand, in addition to other methods of course, complex models that can represent fundamental relationships and process great amounts of information.' Whilst the technique is indispensable, the value depends upon robust assumptions, presentations, ensuing discussion and debate over the findings, and over policy options.
As Thomas Malthus wrote, the population question is about community happiness and quality of life.' The same purpose is increasingly being recognised, although the scope is immensely wider now.' The Malthusian-type forces of depletion of natural resources and over-consumption are also much greater than either Malthus or Keynes envisaged.' The Australia Institute has been gathering empirical evidence indicating shifts in aspirations, lifestyle and expenditure by all age groups towards happier and more sustainable consumption demands; and, concurrently, shifts in contrary directions of over-consumption.
'Citizenship or inevitability' ' John Ralston Saul, 2001 ' illustrates a growing recognition that evolving forms of active citizenry provide a means of self' - and community-determination in the face of corporate power, globalisation and diminishing government capacity.' The story of citizenship in Australia is particularly interesting in relation to immigration and multiculturalism.' It is especially interesting for two further reasons: firstly, the classical origins in democratic societies, where the state rested on the collective responsibilities and energies of the citizens.' Secondly, in recent decades numerous social movements and community initiatives have set precedents and defined a great many rights and duties.' Some rights and responsibilities are ascribed to the state, whereas many have been assumed by individuals and groups.
It is entirely feasible that the development of a more civil society and specific values relating to justice, tolerance, equity, harmony, the natural environment and community, for instance, can give fresh impetus to the formation of population policy and to the objectives of sustainability.
Our Population'Our Future is linked with complementary initiatives that are described on other pages of this publication.' They include two Internet conferences and Canberra conferences on 14 November 2003 and in March 2004.
Manning Clark House and the organising team welcome everybody and hope that you have an interesting, stimulating and enjoyable conference.